Ponomarev E. I., Kharuk V. I., Yakimov N. D. Current Results and Perspectives of Wildfire Satellite Monitoring in Siberia

In the paper we summarized the data on wildfires in Siberian forests that was obtained on the basis of long-term (1996–2016) satellite monitoring. Wildfire geospatial analysis is presented and main characteristics of fires are generalized and interpreted for current conditions in Siberian forests. It is shown the growth trend of burning of Siberian forests during the 20-year monitoring period. At the same time, the latitudinal variation of fires, as well as the fire danger period and the fire return interval correlates with the gradient of the main geophysical characteristic such as the incoming solar radiation. Remote sensing data were used to validate the adapted technology for estimating the energy characteristics of burning and to classify the fires of variable intensity. The technology for FRP (Fire Radiative Power) estimation was applied successfully to control extreme intensity or crown wildfires. Instrumental estimation for total annual area of extreme wildfires is at least 8.5 %, and it can reach 15–25 %. The adapted algorithms for predicting the dynamics of variable intensity fires is discussed. The typical times were evaluated for the stages of fire dynamics and the model curves were figured out for the limits of area increment. In addition, the characteristics of the satellite systems used (NOAA/ AVHRR, MODIS Terra/Aqua, Suomi NPP/VIIRS, Landsat-8 OLI, Sentinel-2), were discussed, including Russian segment (Resurs-P), which are promising for increasing effectiveness of wildfire satellite monitoring in Siberia.