Gusev S. M., Tishin D. V. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Contrasting Fire Seasons in the Baikal State Nature Biosphere Reserve and its Buffer Zone
Kazan (Privolzhskiy) Federal University
Kremlyovskaya str., 18, Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, 420008 Russian Federation
E-mail: SMGusev@kai.ru, dendroecology@gmail.com
Abstract
UDC 630*434:574.4(571.54)
How to cite: Gusev S. M., Tishin D. V. Spatio-temporal analysis of contrasting fire seasons in the Baikal state nature biosphere reserve and its buffer zone // Sibirskij Lesnoj Zurnal (Sib. J. For. Sci.). 2026. N. 5. P. … (in Russian with English abstract and references).
DOI: 10.15372/SJFS20260514
EDN: …
© Gusev S. M., Tishin D. V., 2026
The study conducts a comparative analysis of two contrasting extreme fire seasons in the Baikal state nature biosphere reserve and its buffer zone using the years 2003 and 2015 as examples. The problem of changing fire regimes in boreal forests against the background of climate change is highly relevant, requiring a multi-scale approach. Based on the synthesis of Earth remote sensing data (MODIS, VIIRS, Landsat satellite products), the TerraClimate global climate archive, and ground-based dendrochronological measurements, a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of 1432 verified thermal anomalies was performed. It is assumed that the 2003 fire season was largely initiated by human activity. Most of the fires occurred as a result of spring agricultural burnings in the buffer zone at an average altitude of approximately 1246 meters above sea level. These fires were distinguished by high fire radiative power (FRP up to 693 MW) and a significant increase in the differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR up to 132). In contrast, the catastrophic 2015 season was triggered by a rare macroclimatic anomaly – a summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) of up to 174 Pa. The anomaly led to an unprecedented shift of fire hotspots into hard-to-reach high-altitude areas of the reserve, on average 1457 meters above sea level. A specific (atypical) pyrogenic reaction of forest stands was identified. Despite the relatively low intensity of thermal radiation (average FRP 8–20 MW) and moderate dNBR values, these fires evolved into a stage of prolonged forest floor smoldering. Comparison of data with the satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ground-based RWI observations allowed suggesting thermal damage to root systems, resulting in prolonged reduction of stability and physiological weakening of forest stands after the fire. The obtained results convincingly indicate that assessing ecological damage solely by satellite heat emission metrics can be significantly distorted, and justify the need to use differentiated monitoring strategies for specially protected natural areas. The conclusions were drawn from a local sample of 46 trees of the indicator species Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and require further verification on a larger sample.
Article
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