RU EN

Page menu:

Soldatov V. V., Soukhovolsky V. G. Decision Making in the Problems of Forest Protection from Insect Pests

Keywords:
forest ecosystem, forest insects, outbreaks of mass reproduction, management, risks, monitoring, protective measures, decision making, optimization

Abstract

UDC 630*161:658.5

How to cite: Soldatov V. V.1, Soukhovolsky V. G.2 Decision making in the problems of forest protection from insect pests // Sibirskij Lesnoj Zurnal (Siberian Journal of Forest Science). 2021. N. 5. P. … (in Russian with English abstract).

DOI: 10.15372/SJFS20210511

© Soldatov V. V., Soukhovolsky V. G., 2021

The principles of organization in the forest protection system and the principles of decision-making in the tasks of carrying out protective measures are discussed. The problem of assessing costs and risks in the course of forest protection measures is considered. The functioning of a security service is better understood when viewed as an agent-principal system. In the "agent-principal" system, agency relations are established when one person – the principal or the owner (principal) – transfers certain rights to another person – the agent. In this case, the agent, in accordance with the contract concluded between them, is obliged to act in the interests of the principal in exchange for remuneration. The agent problem, well known in the contract theory of economic systems management, is that if the managing manager is not the owner (principal) of the control structure, then there is a mismatch between the management goals of the principal and the agent. Each of them – both the agent and the principal - has their own interests. The agent has its own interests, and he tends to follow the goals of the principal only to the extent that the contract encourages him to do so. In such a system, there is an uneven distribution of information between the agent and the principal. By analogy with such economic systems, the system of forest protection is considered, where the state or the region is the principal, and the heads of regional structures of the forest protection system have information about the state of the forest ecosystem and the right to make managerial decisions. The features of the functioning of such a system are discussed. The problem of decision-making when carrying out protective measures is considered. The main feature of the decision-making process when protecting a forest from an attack by insects is that there is a lag between the moment a decision is made to switch to protective measures and the moment when protective measures begin. A decision-making model that minimizes the risks of errors is considered. The proposed approach makes it possible to evaluate the efficiency of decision-making in forest protection tasks, depending on the management principles used. The optimal decision on carrying out protective measures will be while minimizing errors of the first and second genera and the risk of damage to the plantation. In the proposed decision-making model, the coefficients for a certain type of pest can be determined from long-term survey data, while as an indicator of the state of the population, it is possible to use not only the values of its density, but also other indicators.

Article


СПИСОК ЛИТЕРАТУРЫ (REFERENCES)

Айзерман М. А., Алескеров Ф. Т. Выбор вариантов (основы теории). М.: Наука, 1990. 240 с. [Ayzerman M. A., Aleskerov F. T. Vybor variantov (osnovy teorii) (The choose of variants). Moscow: Nauka (Science), 1990. 240 p. (in Russian)].

Акерлоф Дж. Рынок «лимонов»: неопределенность качества и рыночный механизм // Thesis. 1994. № 5. С. 91–104 [Akerlof J. Rynok «limonov»: neopredelennost' kachestva i rynochny mekhanizm (Market of «lemons»: Quality uncertainty and market mechanism) // Thesis. 1994. N. 5. P. 91–104 (in Russian)].

Алескеров Ф. Т., Хабина Э. Л., Шварц Д. А. Бинарные отношения, графы и коллективные решения. М.: Физматлит, 2012. 341 с. [Aleskerov F. T., Habina E. L., Shvarts D. A. Binarnye otnosheniya, grafy i kollektivnye resheniya (Binary relations, graphs and collective decisions). Moscow: Fizmatlit, 2012. 341 p. (in Russian)].

Алчиан А., Демсец Г. Производство, стоимость информации и экономическая организация // Вехи экономической мысли. Т. 5. Теория отраслевых рынков. СПб: Экон. школа, 2003. 670 с. [Alchian A., Demsets G. Proizvodstvo, stoimost' informatsii i ekonomicheskaya organizatsiya (Production, information cost and economic organization) // Vekhi ekonomicheskoy mysli (Milestones of economic thought). V. 5. Teoriya otraslevykh rynkov (Industry market theory). St. Petersburg: Ekon. shkola (Econ. school), 2003. 670 p. (in Russian)].

Болтон П., Деватрипонт М. Теория контрактов. М.: Дело, 2019. 800 с. [Bolton P., Devatripont M. Teoriya kontraktov (Contract theory). Moscow: Delo, 2019. 800 p. (in Russian)].

Вебер М. Избранные произведения. М.: Прогресс, 1990. 808 с. [Veber M. Izbrannye proizvedeniya (Selected works). Moscow: Progress, 1990. 808 p. (in Russian)].

Голубев А. В., Инсаров Г. Э., Страхов В. В. Математические методы в лесозащите (учет, прогноз, принятие решений). М.: Лесн. пром-сть, 1980. 101 с. [Golubev A. V., Insarov G. E., Strakhov V. V. Matematicheskie metody v lesozashchite (uchet, prognoz, prinyatie resheniy) (Mathematical methods in forest protection (accounting, forecasting, decision making). Moscow: Lesn. prom-st' (For. industry), 1980. 101 p. (in Russian)].

Долан Э., Линдсей Д. Рынок: микроэкономическая модель. СПб.: Печатный двор, 1992. 496 с. [Dolan E., Lindsey D. Rynok: mikroekonomicheskaya model’ (Market: microeconomic model). St. Petersburg: Pechatny dvor, 1992. 496 p. (in Russian)].

Есипов Б. А. Методы исследования операций. СПб.: Лань, 2010. 253 с. [Esipov B. A. Metody issledovaniya operatsiy (The methods for study operations). St. Petersburg: Lan', 2010. 253 p. (in Russian)].

Исаев А. С., Кондаков Ю. П. Принципы и методы лесоэнтомологического мониторинга // Лесоведение. 1986. № 4. С. 3–12 [Isaev A. S., Kondakov Yu. P. Printsipy i metody lesoentomologicheskogo monitoringa (Principles and methods of forest entomological monitoring) // Lesovedenie (For. Sci.). 1986. N. 4. P. 3–12 (in Russian with English abstract)].

Исаев А. С., Ершов Д. В., Лупян Е. А., Кобельков М. Е. Особенности организации спутникового мониторинга массового размножения вредных насекомых в лесах Сибири // Современные проблемы дистанционного зондирования Земли из космоса. 2004. Т. 1. № 1. С. 164–174 [Isaev A. S., Ershov D. V., Lupyan E. A., Kobel'kov M. E. Osobennosti organizatsii sputnikovogo monitoringa massovogo razmnozheniya vrednykh nasekomykh v lesakh Sibiri (Features of the organization of satellite monitoring of insect’s outbreaks in the forests of Siberia) // Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa (Modern problems of remote sensing of the Earth from space). 2004. V. 1. N. 1. P. 164–174 (in Russian with English abstract)].

Исаев А. С., Лямцев Н. И., Ершов Д. В. Контроль численности лесных насекомых в системе лесоэнтомологического мониторинга // Разнообразие и динамика лесных экосистем России. М.: Тов-во науч. изд. КМК, 2012a. Кн. 1. С. 383–421 [Isaev A. S., Lyamtsev N. I., Ershov D. V. Kontrol' chislennosti lesnykh nasekomykh v sisteme lesoentomologicheskogo monitoringa (Control of the forest insects population in the system of forest entomological monitoring) // Raznoobrazie i dinamika lesnykh ekosistem Rossii (Diversity and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Russia). Moscow: Tov-vo nauch. izd. KMK, 2012a. V. 1. P. 383–421 (in Russian)].

Исаев А. С., Суховольский В. Г., Овчинникова Т. М., Ковалев А. В., Пальникова Е. Н., Тарасова О. В. Экологический риск вспышек массового размножения лесных насекомых, моделирование и принятие решений в задачах лесозащиты // Изв. СПб. лесотех. акад. 2012б. Вып. 200. С. 173–184 [Isaev A. S., Soukhovolsky V. G., Ovchinnikova T. M., Kovalev A. V., Pal'nikova E. N., Tarasova O. V. Ekologicheskiy risk vspyshek massovogo razmnozheniya lesnykh nasekomykh, modelirovanie i prinyatie resheniy v zadachakh lesozashchity (Ecological risk of outbreaks of forest insects, modeling and decision-making in forest protection problems) // Izv. SPb. lesotekh. akad. (Bull. St. Petersburg For. Acad.). 2012b. N. 200. P. 173–184 (in Russian with English abstract)].

Качала В. В. Теория систем и системный анализ. М.: Академия, 2013. 272 с. [Kachala V. V. Teoriya sistem i sistemny analiz (Systems theory and systems analysis). Moscow: Akademiya, 2013. 272 p. (in Russian)].

Кини Р., Райфа Х. Принятие решений при многих критериях. М.: Радио и связь, 1981. 560 с. [Kini R., Rajfa H. Prinyatie resheniy pri mnogikh kriteriyakh (Multi-criteria decision making). Moscow: Radio i svyaz', 1981. 560 p. (in Russian)].

Ларичев О. И. Теория и методы принятия решений. М.: Логос, 2002. 392 с. [Larichev O. I. Teoriya i metody prinyatiya resheniy (Decision theory and methods). Moscow: Logos, 2002. 392 p. (in Russian)].

Лесной кодекс Российской Федерации от 04.12.2006 № 200-ФЗ [Lesnoy kodeks Rossiyskoy Federatsii ot 04.12.2006 № 200-FZ (Forest Code of the Russian Federation of 04.12.2006 N. 200-Federal Law) (in Russian)].

Литвак Б. Г. Экспертные оценки и принятие решений. М.: Патент, 1996. 271 с. [Litvak B. G. Ekspertnye otsenki i prinyatie resheniy (Expert judgment and decision making). Moscow: Patent, 1996. 271 p. (in Russian)].

Литвак Б. Г. Разработка управленческого решения. М.: Дело, 2004. 392 с. [Litvak B. G. Razrabotka upravlencheskogo resheniya (Development of a management solution). Moscow: Delo, 2004. 392 p. (in Russian)].

Лотов А. В., Бушенков В. А., Каменев Г. К., Черных О. Л. Компьютер и поиск компромисса. М.: Наука, 1997. 240 с. [Lotov A. V., Bushenkov V. A., Kamenev G. K., Chernykh O. L. Komp'uter i poisk kompromissa (Computer and the search of a compromise). Moscow: Nauka (Science), 1997. 240 p. (in Russian)].

Макконелл К., Брю С. Экономикс. М.: Инфра-М, 2002. 983 с. [Makkonell K., Bryu S. Ekonomiks (Economics). Moscow: Infra-M, 2002. 983 p. (in Russian)].

Пиндайк Р. C., Рубинфельд Д. Л. Микроэкономика. М.: Дело, 2000. 808 с. [Pindayk R. S., Rubinfel'd D. L. Mikroekonomika (Microeconomics). Moscow: Delo, 2000. 808 p. (in Russian)].

Подиновский В. В., Ногин В. Д. Парето-оптимальные решения многокритериальных задач. М.: Физматлит, 2007. 256 с. [Podinovskiy V. V., Nogin V. D. Pareto-optimal'nye resheniya mnogokriterial'nykh zadach (Pareto-optimal solutions to multicriteria problems). Moscow: Fizmatlit, 2007. 256 p. (in Russian)].

Робертс Ф. Дискретные математические модели. М.: Наука, 1986. 494 с. [Roberts F. Diskretnye matematicheskie modeli (Discrete mathematical models). Moscow: Nauka (Science), 1986. 494 p. (in Russian)].

Соколов А. В., Токарев В. В. Методы оптимальных решений. Т. 1. М.: Физматлит, 2011. 564 с. [Sokolov A. V., Tokarev V. V. Metody optimal'nykh resheniy (Optimal decision methods). V. 1. Moscow: Fizmatlit, 2011. 564 p. (in Russian)].

Филинов Н. Б. Разработка и принятие управленческих решений: М.: Инфра-М, 2009. 308 с. [Filinov N. B. Razrabotka i prinyatie upravlencheskih resheniy (Development and adoption of management decisions). Moscow: Infra-M, 2009. 308 p. (in Russian)].

Чанг Д., Пирс П. Х. Лесная экономика. М.: Лесн. дело, 2019. 384 с. [Chang D., Pearse P. H. Lesnaya ekonomika (Forest economics). Moscow: Lesn. delo, 2019. 384 p. (in Russian)].


Return to list