Velisevich S. N., Popov A. V. An Improved Retrospective Method for Assessing the Effects of Frost and Drought on Cone Losses in Siberian Stone Pine
1 Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Rus. Acad. Sci., Sib. Br.
Prospekt Akademicheskiy, 10/3, Tomsk, 634055 Russian Federation
2 National Research Tomsk State University
Prospekt Lenina, 36, Tomsk, 634050 Russian Federation
Abstract
UDC 630*232.3:551.524.3:551.577.3
How to cite: Velisevich S. N.1, Popov A. V.2 An improved retrospective method for assessing the effects of frost and drought on cone losses in Siberian stone pine // Sibirskij Lesnoj Zurnal (Sib. J. For. Sci.). 2026. N. 4. P. … (in Russian with English abstract and references).
DOI: 10.15372/SJFS20260401
EDN: …
© Velisevich S. N., Popov A. V., 2026
Methods for assessing seed productivity of tree species play an important role in evaluating the productivity of forest ecosystems, especially under the need to predict their yield in a changing climate. The widely used retrospective method, applied to various pine species and to Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) in particular, is based on the analysis of traces (scars) remaining on branches after cone abscission over many years. This approach allows fairly accurate estimation of yield over previous years, but its effectiveness decreases when it is necessary to determine the impact of short-term weather anomalies on cone mortality. Over the past two decades, a trend towards changes in the periodicity of yields has been observed, which is presumably related to climate change. In this regard, there is a need to more accurately differentiate periods of cone abortion and identify specific factors leading to losses. The study proposes an improvement of the retrospective method that allows distinguishing between traces from cones lost in the pollination year due to late spring-summer frosts and those lost due to summer drought. Diagnostic criteria for each type of damage have been established: cones killed by frost leave a convex dark brown scar with a smooth surface and disruption of the vascular bundle in longitudinal section; cones killed by drought leave a slightly concave light brown scar with preserved remnants of the vascular system in the center. The proposed features provide reliable visual diagnostics and can be used to reconstruct long-term yield dynamics with differentiation of limiting weather factors.
Article
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